← 5/02/2026 [TCG] League RDO NA Online Grand Archive Regional #1

Fire OblationTier 1

at 5/02/2026 [TCG] League RDO NA Online Grand Archive Regional #1

decks
5 (4.9% of field)
matches (non-mirror)
30 20-8-2
overall winrate
70.0%
ELO-adjusted winrate
55.3% avg ELO +1.9 per match
expected value
58.9% share-weighted (raw)
EV (ELO-adj)
52.8% share-weighted (skill-controlled)
Pilot Skill ↑ top
mean ELO 1397 · median 1404 · range 1171–1656 (5 pilots with an ELO rating)
1076 Q1 1237 Q3 1425 1656
40% of pilots are in the field's top quartile, 20% in the bottom. This deck is favored by stronger players — weight the headline winrates accordingly (the ELO-adjusted column already controls for this at the match level).
Head-to-Head Matchups

Winrates vs every other archetype, sorted by the opponent's field share. Mirrors excluded. Shrunk WR uses a Beta(2, 2) prior so a 1-0 cell doesn't read as 100%; it feeds the EV calc above. Adj WR is the skill-controlled view: derived from per-match ELO deltas (0.5 + avg ELO Δ / K=32, same shrinkage), so it tells you what would have happened on equal-rating play. A faded Raw WR means under 10 matches — lean on the Shrunk WR column there.

Opponent Their share Matches W-L-D Raw WR Shrunk WR Adj WR ELO Δ/match
Fire Slimes 9.8% 4 2-2-0 50.0% 50.0% 48.6% -0.9
Wind Razorgale 8.8% 2 1-0-1 75.0% 58.3% 50.8% +0.8
Fire Crux Lorraine 7.8% 3 3-0-0 100.0% 71.4% 58.4% +6.3
Fire Crux Mage 6.9% 5 4-1-0 80.0% 66.7% 55.2% +3.0
Water Fractal 6.9% 1 1-0-0 100.0% 60.0% 54.8% +7.7
Water Genbu 4.9% 0
Fire Firebloom Burn 3.9% 0
Water Aetherwing 3.9% 0
Wind Seiryuu 3.9% 3 3-0-0 100.0% 71.4% 59.6% +7.1
Fire Luxem Assassin 2.9% 0
Wind Shadowstrike 2.9% 0
Fire Aetherwing 2.0% 1 1-0-0 100.0% 60.0% 56.4% +10.2
Fire Exia 2.0% 0
Fire Suited 2.0% 1 0-0-1 50.0% 50.0% 48.5% -2.4
Fire Suzaku 2.0% 1 0-1-0 0.0% 40.0% 44.8% -8.4
Fire Umbra Guardian 2.0% 1 1-0-0 100.0% 60.0% 53.2% +5.1
Horse and Taxes 2.0% 0
Water Ravishing Mill 2.0% 1 1-0-0 100.0% 60.0% 54.8% +7.7
Wind Astra Cleric 2.0% 2 1-1-0 50.0% 50.0% 46.6% -3.3
Wind Wakeup Combo 2.0% 0
Fire Arcane 1.0% 0
Fire Exalted Mordred 1.0% 0
Fire Tera Mage 1.0% 0
Water Astra Cleric 1.0% 0
Water Astra Ranger 1.0% 0
Water Crux Merlin 1.0% 0
Water Exia 1.0% 1 1-0-0 100.0% 60.0% 53.3% +5.3
Water Luxem Assassin 1.0% 1 1-0-0 100.0% 60.0% 56.1% +9.7
Water Neos 1.0% 0
Water Tera Mage 1.0% 0
Water Wind Vanitas 1.0% 0
Wind Crux Lorraine 1.0% 0
Wind Crux Mage 1.0% 1 0-1-0 0.0% 40.0% 46.6% -5.4
Wind Luxem Assassin 1.0% 1 0-1-0 0.0% 40.0% 43.8% -10.0
Wind Nico 1.0% 1 0-1-0 0.0% 40.0% 44.8% -8.4
Wind Silvie 1.0% 0
Wind Tera Kongming 1.0% 0
Decklists · 5 from this event

The 5 public Fire Oblation decklists from this event, ordered by final placement — click a pilot for the full list.

Mirror Analysis

In 1 mirror match, here are the card-count differences that most often separated the winning deck from the losing one. Staples (cards both decks run at the same count) are filtered out — only flex slots show up below. Cards whose count only differed in fewer than 3 mirrors are also held back as too sparse to call a pattern (still visible in the raw table further down). Small sample warning: 1 mirror is borderline; treat these as suggestive, not conclusive.

No card differed in at least 3 of the 1 mirror we have. The raw table below has the sparse signals that didn't clear the threshold — treat them as noise unless the sample grows.

Show all 16 cards with non-zero signal (raw numbers, including 16 held back from the grid above)
Card Edge In winner In loser Same Direction
Orb of Sealing +1.00 1 0 0
Undeniable Truth +1.00 1 0 0
Flamme Sorcel +1.00 1 0 0
Expel the Departed -1.00 0 1 0
Blanche, Sheltering Saint -1.00 0 1 0
Folded Shadows +1.00 1 0 0
Devastating Blow -1.00 0 1 0
Nullifying Lantern +1.00 1 0 0
Infernal Vessel +1.00 1 0 0
Crystallized Destiny -1.00 0 1 0
Safeguard Amulet -1.00 0 1 0
Tariff Ring -1.00 0 1 0
Carter, Synthetic Reaper -1.00 0 1 0
Nullifying Mirror -1.00 0 1 0
Advent of the Stormcaller +1.00 1 0 0
Regal Inquisition +1.00 1 0 0

JSON: /api/events/50924/archetypes/Fire Oblation